Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Puszcza Niepołomice

P. Małecki 90+4'

João Oliveira 84'

12/2/2020

I Liga · Round 15Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec36%

×Draw27%

Puszcza Niepołomice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.25

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 103 away

1.16

creates per match

1.20

1.39

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.20

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

62%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Puszcza Niepołomice

73%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

64%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

15%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

71%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

36%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

13%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

72%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

37%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

49%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

36%

level

27%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

38%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

K. Knap

26'

J. Serafin

26'

P. Polczak

34'

Martim Maia← F. Karbowy

38'

K. Stepien

46'

K. Radkowski← L. Ďuriška

46'

63'

64'

67'

67'

J. Bartosz← Ł. Spławski

83'

M. Skrzypczak← M. Mikołajczyk

83'

M. Czarny← J. Bartosz

84'

João Oliveira

90+2'

P. Mularczyk← João Oliveira

90+4'

P. Małecki

Zaglebie

Puszcza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Dębek

34'▲Martim Maia←▼F. Karbowy

46'▲K. Radkowski←▼L. Ďuriška

63'▲P. Małecki←▼O. Nowak

90+2'▲P. Mularczyk←▼João Oliveira

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

MaiaRadkowskiMałeckiMularczyk

Manager: T. Tułacz

46'▲B. Żurek←▼K. Knap

67'▲M. Klec←▼M. Rakoczy

67'▲J. Bartosz←▼Ł. Spławski

83'▲M. Skrzypczak←▼M. Mikołajczyk

83'▲M. Czarny←▼J. Bartosz

Puszcza Niepołomice substitutes

ŻurekKlecBartoszSkrzypczakCzarny

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 in I Liga on December 2, 2020.

Goals: João Oliveira (84'), P. Małecki (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Puszcza Niepołomice