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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
8/26/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 8Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice43%
×Draw28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.33
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.04

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
71%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
72%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
57%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
20%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
74%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
38%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
15%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
65%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
60%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
43%
level
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
29%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Sosnowiec drew 0-0 in I Liga on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.