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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
V. Sanogo 36'
T. Jodłowiec 80'
A. Sedlar 67' (pen)
7/23/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 1Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%
×Draw23%
Piast Gliwice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.51
Piast Gliwice
1.73

Piast Gliwice creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 136 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Piast Gliwice
1.13

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Piast Gliwice
1.13

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
57%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Piast Gliwice
77%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
66%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
16%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
78%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
44%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
19%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
82%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
52%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
44%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.51

Piast Gliwice attack 1.13 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
34%
level
23%
Piast Gliwice scores more
43%

Piast Gliwice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
V. Sanogo
56'
A. Jagiełło← Jorge Félix
63'
C. Rzonca← D. Vokič
63'
P. Parzyszek← M. Papadopulos
67'
A. SedlarPenalty
73'
A. Banasiak← Alexander Christovao
80'
J. Torunarigha← T. Nowak
80'
T. Jodłowiec↳ Mateusz Mak
90'
P. Sokołowski← J. Valencia

Possession

52%Zaglebie

Shots

10Zaglebie

Statistics

ZaglebiePiast
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots13
4Corners5
16Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots13
3On Target2
7Off Target11
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls15
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–2 Piast Gliwice

Piast Gliwice beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on July 23, 2018.

Goals: V. Sanogo (36'), A. Sedlar (67' pen), T. Jodłowiec (80').

Zaglebie Sosnowiec controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.