Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–3 Karviná: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1 – 3

Karviná

7/7/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gosław Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%

×Draw20%

Karviná50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchKarviná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.27

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.73

Karviná

2.27

Karviná creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.64

creates per match

2.33

2.21

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.64

Karviná

2.33

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.21

Karviná

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Karviná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Karviná →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

50%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Karviná

80%

Draw or Karviná

70%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

15%

Karviná wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

82%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

52%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

25%

Karviná 1+ goals

90%

Karviná 2+ goals

66%

Karviná 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

37%

Karviná (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Karviná away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.64 + Karviná defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Karviná attack 2.33 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

30%

level

20%

Karviná scores more

50%

Karviná at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff