Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–1 Jastrzębie: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jastrzębie

M. Banaszewski 83'

S. Zalewski 29' (OG)

D. Stanclik 90+3'

4/2/2022

I Liga · Round 26Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec39%

×Draw27%

Jastrzębie34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.19

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.28

Jastrzębie

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

1.16

creates per match

0.99

1.39

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Jastrzębie

0.99

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Jastrzębie

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

66%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Jastrzębie

73%

Draw or Jastrzębie

61%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

17%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

72%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

37%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

14%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

70%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

33%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

53%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jastrzębie attack 0.99 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

39%

level

27%

Jastrzębie scores more

34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. ZalewskiOwn goal

46'

R. Borkała← S. Zalewski

46'

N. Wybraniec← M. Kuczałek

57'

W. Szumilas

65'

M. Fabry

67'

D. Ryndak← W. Szumilas

67'

N. Korzeniecki← F. Borowski

77'

M. Banaszewski← S. Pawłowski

77'

K. Handzlik← V. Okhronchuk

83'

M. Banaszewski

85'

D. Jonczy

86'

M. Masłowski← João Oliveira

86'

V. Sanogo← S. Sobczak

88'

D. Stanclik← F. Ali

90+3'

M. Gliwa

90+3'

D. Stanclik

Zaglebie

Jastrzębie

Neugebaue

Podhorín

Bondarenk

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Skowronek

67'▲D. Ryndak←▼W. Szumilas

67'▲N. Korzeniecki←▼F. Borowski

77'▲M. Banaszewski←▼S. Pawłowski

86'▲M. Masłowski←▼João Oliveira

86'▲V. Sanogo←▼S. Sobczak

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

RyndakKorzenieckiBanaszewskiMasłowskiSanogoBielikowĎuriškaPopczykKamiński

Manager: G. Kurdziel

46'▲R. Borkała←▼S. Zalewski

46'▲N. Wybraniec←▼M. Kuczałek

77'▲K. Handzlik←▼V. Okhronchuk

88'▲D. Stanclik←▼F. Ali

Jastrzębie substitutes

BorkałaWybraniecHandzlikStanclikSzkudlarekJadachReclafSłodowyGajda

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Jastrzębie

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Jastrzębie 2-1 in I Liga on April 2, 2022.

Goals: S. Zalewski (29' o.g.), M. Banaszewski (83'), D. Stanclik (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Jastrzębie