Jastrzębie vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Jastrzębie

AWD

0 – 3

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

4/18/2026

II Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jastrzębie42%

×Draw27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JastrzębieExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.16

Jastrzębie

1.37

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Jastrzębie creates 18% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

1.06

1.25

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Jastrzębie

1.19

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Jastrzębie

1.25

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw

68%

Jastrzębie or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

73%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

58%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

19%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

75%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

40%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

16%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

32%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

57%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jastrzębie scores more

42%

level

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

32%

Jastrzębie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff