Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
Gornik Zabrze41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 134 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches
Gornik Zabrze away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 134 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65
Gornik Zabrze attack 1.16 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Gornik Zabrze at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Lech Poznan
JagielloniaGornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia Gdansk
Motor Lublin
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Zaglebie Sosnowiec host Gornik Zabrze on Monday, 17 September 2018 at 16:00. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Gornik Zabrze
Zaglebie Sosnowiec and Gornik Zabrze drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 17, 2018.
Goals: V. Sanogo (17'), Angulo (85').
Zaglebie Sosnowiec controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 9.
The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.