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Zaglebie Lubin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
7/28/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 2Stadion Zagłębia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin53%
×Draw24%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.69
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.02

Zaglebie Lubin creates 66% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.39
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.79

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.25
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
77%
Zaglebie Lubin or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
76%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
47%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
82%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
50%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
24%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 137 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.39 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
53%
level
24%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
23%

Zaglebie Lubin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zaglebie Lubin beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia in Lubin.