Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Ruch Chorzów: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ruch Chorzów

7/23/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin49%

×Draw24%

Ruch Chorzów27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.19

Zaglebie Lubin

1.67

Ruch Chorzów

1.19

Zaglebie Lubin creates 40% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.12

1.25

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.39

Ruch Chorzów

1.12

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.25

Ruch Chorzów

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

73%

Zaglebie Lubin or Ruch Chorzów

76%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

51%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

26%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

81%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

50%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

23%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

70%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

33%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

64%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 137 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.39 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

49%

level

24%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

27%

Zaglebie Lubin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff