Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Motor Lublin

M. Mróz 58'

S. Mráz 78'

P. Ceglarz 44' (pen)

11/22/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin43%

×Draw24%

Motor Lublin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.36

Zaglebie Lubin

1.58

Motor Lublin

1.36

Zaglebie Lubin creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

1.35

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.35

Motor Lublin

1.33

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.40

Motor Lublin

1.81

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.16scores less

Motor Lublin+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

67%

Zaglebie Lubin or Motor Lublin

76%

Draw or Motor Lublin

57%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

21%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

79%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

47%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

21%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

74%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

39%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

56%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 36 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.81 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.35 + Motor Lublin defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Motor Lublin attack 1.33 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

43%

level

24%

Motor Lublin scores more

33%

Zaglebie Lubin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Rosa

Motor Lublin · G

8.0

Match Events

23'

Arkadiusz Najemski

31'

Krystian Palacz

42'

Christopher SimonPenalty confirmed

44'

P. CeglarzPenalty

46'

F. Luberecki← K. Palacz

46'

S. Rudol← A. Najemski

58'

M. Mróz

62'

M. N'Diaye← M. Król

62'

K. Çalışkaner← C. Simon

72'

D. Kurminowski← T. Pieńko

77'

Jarosław Jach

78'

S. Mráz↳ K. Çalışkaner

79'

P. Kusztal← M. Wdowiak

79'

F. Wójcik← P. Stolarski

86'

D. Mikołajewski← A. Woźniak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebieMotor

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots17

0.96Expected Goals (xG)3.04

3Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots17

7On Target6

3Off Target5

4Blocked6

9Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

495Total Passes376

389Accurate Passes275

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0