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Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
V. Sejk 58'
J. Arak 86'
7/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Akademii Piłkarskiej KGHM Zagłębie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin54%
×Draw25%
GKS Katowice21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.65
GKS Katowice
0.93

Zaglebie Lubin creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.55
GKS Katowice
0.50

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.36
GKS Katowice
1.75

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
79%
Zaglebie Lubin or GKS Katowice
75%
Draw or GKS Katowice
46%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
29%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
81%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
49%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
23%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
61%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
24%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
72%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.55 + GKS Katowice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

GKS Katowice attack 0.50 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
54%
level
25%
GKS Katowice scores more
21%

Zaglebie Lubin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
V. Sejk
86'
J. Arak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice

Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2024.

Goals: V. Sejk (58'), J. Arak (86').

The match was played at Akademii Piłkarskiej KGHM Zagłębie in Lubin.