Zagłębie Lubin U19 2–0 Wisła Kraków U19

Zagłębie Lubin U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wisła Kraków U19

3/9/2024

Central Youth League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1942%

×Draw22%

Wisła Kraków U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin U19Expected goals in this matchWisła Kraków U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.73

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.90

Wisła Kraków U19

1.73

Zagłębie Lubin U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

2.00

creates per match

1.96

1.50

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19

2.00

Wisła Kraków U19

1.96

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.50

Wisła Kraków U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Wisła Kraków U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U19 ↓

Wisła Kraków U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or draw

64%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or Wisła Kraków U19

78%

Draw or Wisła Kraków U19

58%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+

23%

Wisła Kraków U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals

85%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals

56%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals

29%

Wisła Kraków U19 1+ goals

82%

Wisła Kraków U19 2+ goals

52%

Wisła Kraków U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Wisła Kraków U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Wisła Kraków U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 2.00 + Wisła Kraków U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Wisła Kraków U19 attack 1.96 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more

42%

level

22%

Wisła Kraków U19 scores more

36%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff