Zagłębie Lubin U19 2–2 Widzew Łódź U19

Zagłębie Lubin U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Widzew Łódź U19

11/25/2023

Central Youth League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1960%

×Draw19%

Widzew Łódź U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin U19Expected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.39

Zagłębie Lubin U19

2.44

Widzew Łódź U19

1.39

Zagłębie Lubin U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.27

1.50

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19

2.00

Widzew Łódź U19

1.27

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.50

Widzew Łódź U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U19 ↓

Widzew Łódź U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or draw

79%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or Widzew Łódź U19

81%

Draw or Widzew Łódź U19

40%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+

39%

Widzew Łódź U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals

91%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals

70%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals

43%

Widzew Łódź U19 1+ goals

75%

Widzew Łódź U19 2+ goals

40%

Widzew Łódź U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Widzew Łódź U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Widzew Łódź U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 2.00 + Widzew Łódź U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.44

Widzew Łódź U19 attack 1.27 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Widzew Łódź U19 scores more

21%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff