Zagłębie Lubin U19 8–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Zagłębie Lubin U19

FT

8 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

8/20/2023

Central Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1965%

×Draw17%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin U19Expected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.31

Zagłębie Lubin U19

2.63

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.31

Zagłębie Lubin U19 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

1.50

allows per match

3.27

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19

2.00

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.13

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.50

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

3.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U19 ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or draw

83%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

83%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

35%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+

44%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals

93%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals

73%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals

48%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals

73%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals

38%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 2.00 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.13 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more

65%

level

17%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more

17%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff