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Zagłębie Lubin U18 vs Wisła Kraków U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Zagłębie Lubin U18
Zagłębie Lubin U18
FT
2 – 0
Wisła Kraków U18
Wisła Kraków U18
11/4/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1844%
×Draw22%
Wisła Kraków U1834%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.94
Wisła Kraków U18
1.70

Zagłębie Lubin U18 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U18
2.21
Wisła Kraków U18
2.24

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.16
Wisła Kraków U18
1.68

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U18+0.00on par
Wisła Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U18 ↓

Wisła Kraków U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U18 or draw
66%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 or Wisła Kraków U18
78%
Draw or Wisła Kraków U18
56%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U18 wins by 2+
24%
Wisła Kraków U18 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U18 1+ goals
86%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 2+ goals
58%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 3+ goals
30%
Wisła Kraków U18 1+ goals
82%
Wisła Kraków U18 2+ goals
51%
Wisła Kraków U18 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U18 (draw refunded)
56%
Wisła Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U18 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Wisła Kraków U18 away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U18 attack 2.21 + Wisła Kraków U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.94

Wisła Kraków U18 attack 2.24 + Zagłębie Lubin U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U18 scores more
44%
level
22%
Wisła Kraków U18 scores more
34%

Zagłębie Lubin U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin U18 vs Wisła Kraków U18

Zagłębie Lubin U18 beat Wisła Kraków U18 2-0 in Central Youth League on November 4, 2020.