Zagłębie Lubin U18 1–0 Warta Poznań U18

Zagłębie Lubin U18

FT

1 – 0

Warta Poznań U18

10/30/2021

Central Youth League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1857%

×Draw20%

Warta Poznań U1822%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin U18Expected goals in this matchWarta Poznań U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.34

Zagłębie Lubin U18

2.24

Warta Poznań U18

1.34

Zagłębie Lubin U18 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

2.21

creates per match

1.53

1.16

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U18

2.21

Warta Poznań U18

1.53

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U18

1.16

Warta Poznań U18

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U18+0.00on par

Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U18 ↓

Warta Poznań U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U18 or draw

78%

Zagłębie Lubin U18 or Warta Poznań U18

80%

Draw or Warta Poznań U18

43%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U18 wins by 2+

36%

Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U18 1+ goals

89%

Zagłębie Lubin U18 2+ goals

65%

Zagłębie Lubin U18 3+ goals

38%

Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals

74%

Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals

39%

Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U18 (draw refunded)

72%

Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U18 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Warta Poznań U18 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U18 attack 2.21 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.24

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.53 + Zagłębie Lubin U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U18 scores more

57%

level

20%

Warta Poznań U18 scores more

22%

Zagłębie Lubin U18 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff