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Zagłębie Lubin U18 vs Raków Częstochowa U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Zagłębie Lubin U18
Zagłębie Lubin U18
FT
2 – 1
Raków Częstochowa U18
Raków Częstochowa U18
10/29/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin U1856%
×Draw21%
Raków Częstochowa U1823%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin U18
2.15
Raków Częstochowa U18
1.32

Zagłębie Lubin U18 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin U18
2.21
Raków Częstochowa U18
1.48

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.16
Raków Częstochowa U18
2.09

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin U18+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin U18 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin U18 or draw
77%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 or Raków Częstochowa U18
79%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa U18
44%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin U18 wins by 2+
34%
Raków Częstochowa U18 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin U18 1+ goals
88%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 2+ goals
63%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 3+ goals
36%
Raków Częstochowa U18 1+ goals
73%
Raków Częstochowa U18 2+ goals
38%
Raków Częstochowa U18 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin U18 (draw refunded)
71%
Raków Częstochowa U18 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin U18 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Raków Częstochowa U18 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin U18 attack 2.21 + Raków Częstochowa U18 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.15

Raków Częstochowa U18 attack 1.48 + Zagłębie Lubin U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zagłębie Lubin U18 scores more
56%
level
21%
Raków Częstochowa U18 scores more
23%

Zagłębie Lubin U18 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin U18 vs Raków Częstochowa U18

Zagłębie Lubin U18 beat Raków Częstochowa U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on October 29, 2022.