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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
6 – 2
HT: 5 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
11/30/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II45%
×Draw23%
Wisła Puławy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.77
Wisła Puławy
1.47

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.70
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.45
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
68%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Wisła Puławy
77%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
55%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
24%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
83%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
53%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
26%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
77%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
43%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
58%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
45%
level
23%
Wisła Puławy scores more
32%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zagłębie Lubin II 6–2 Wisła Puławy

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Wisła Puławy 6-2 in II Liga - East on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.