Zagłębie Lubin II 2–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Zagłębie Lubin II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

11/18/2023

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II42%

×Draw26%

Stomil Olsztyn32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin IIExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.41

Stomil Olsztyn

1.19

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

1.70

creates per match

0.94

1.45

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.70

Stomil Olsztyn

0.94

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.45

Stomil Olsztyn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw

68%

Zagłębie Lubin II or Stomil Olsztyn

74%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

58%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

20%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

76%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

41%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

17%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

70%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

33%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

57%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

42%

level

26%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

32%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff