Zagłębie Lubin II 2–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Zagłębie Lubin II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

8/12/2023

II Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II41%

×Draw25%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin IIExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.39

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.54

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.39

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

1.70

creates per match

1.33

1.45

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.70

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.33

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.45

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw

66%

Zagłębie Lubin II or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

75%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

59%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

20%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

79%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

45%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

20%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

75%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

40%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

54%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

41%

level

25%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

34%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff