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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Polonia Środa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
6 – 1
Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II46%
×Draw22%
Polonia Środa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.01
Polonia Środa
1.66

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.13
Polonia Środa
1.56

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.75
Polonia Środa
1.89

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Polonia Środa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
68%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Polonia Środa
78%
Draw or Polonia Środa
54%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
26%
Polonia Środa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
87%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
59%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
32%
Polonia Środa 1+ goals
81%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
49%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
59%
Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.13 + Polonia Środa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.01

Polonia Środa attack 1.56 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
46%
level
22%
Polonia Środa scores more
32%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Zagłębie Lubin II 6–1 Polonia Środa

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Polonia Środa 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.