Zagłębie Lubin II 2–0 Hutnik Kraków: Result & Stats

Zagłębie Lubin II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hutnik Kraków

12/2/2023

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II48%

×Draw24%

Hutnik Kraków28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin IIExpected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.69

Hutnik Kraków

1.25

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 102 away

1.70

creates per match

1.04

1.45

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.70

Hutnik Kraków

1.04

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.45

Hutnik Kraków

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Hutnik Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw

72%

Zagłębie Lubin II or Hutnik Kraków

76%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków

52%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

25%

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

82%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

50%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

24%

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

71%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

36%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

63%

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

48%

level

24%

Hutnik Kraków scores more

28%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff