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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
5/6/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 30Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II43%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.58
Garbarnia Kraków
1.36

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.70
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.45
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
67%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
57%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
21%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
79%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
47%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
21%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
74%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
39%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
56%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
43%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
33%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Garbarnia Kraków

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in II Liga - East on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.