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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
2 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
9/7/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II68%
×Draw17%
Gać Oława15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.64
Gać Oława
1.20

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
2.71
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.40
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
85%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Gać Oława
83%
Draw or Gać Oława
32%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
46%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
93%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
74%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
48%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
70%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
34%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
81%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.64

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
68%
level
17%
Gać Oława scores more
15%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Gać Oława

Zagłębie Lubin II beat Gać Oława 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.