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Zacatepec 1948 vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Zacatepec 1948
Zacatepec 1948
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
11/5/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zacatepec 194841%
×Draw28%
Potros Uaem31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacatepec 1948
1.29
Potros Uaem
1.07

Zacatepec 1948 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

creates per match

Zacatepec 1948
1.37
Potros Uaem
0.85

allows per match

Zacatepec 1948
1.30
Potros Uaem
1.20

finishing

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacatepec 1948 ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zacatepec 1948 or draw
69%
Zacatepec 1948 or Potros Uaem
72%
Draw or Potros Uaem
59%

Winning margin

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+
19%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals
72%
Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals
37%
Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals
14%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
66%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
29%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)
57%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacatepec 1948 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.37 + Potros Uaem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Potros Uaem attack 0.85 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zacatepec 1948 scores more
41%
level
28%
Potros Uaem scores more
31%

Zacatepec 1948 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zacatepec 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Zacatepec 1948 1–3 Potros Uaem

Potros Uaem beat Zacatepec 1948 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec).