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Zacatepec 1948 vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Zacatepec 1948
Zacatepec 1948
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Celaya
Celaya
2/2/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zacatepec 194840%
×Draw27%
Celaya33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacatepec 1948
1.32
Celaya
1.19

Zacatepec 1948 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 119 away

creates per match

Zacatepec 1948
1.52
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Zacatepec 1948
1.24
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Zacatepec 1948+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacatepec 1948 ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zacatepec 1948 or draw
67%
Zacatepec 1948 or Celaya
73%
Draw or Celaya
60%

Winning margin

Zacatepec 1948 wins by 2+
18%
Celaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zacatepec 1948 1+ goals
73%
Zacatepec 1948 2+ goals
38%
Zacatepec 1948 3+ goals
15%
Celaya 1+ goals
70%
Celaya 2+ goals
33%
Celaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zacatepec 1948 (draw refunded)
54%
Celaya (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacatepec 1948 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacatepec 1948 attack 1.52 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Celaya attack 1.15 + Zacatepec 1948 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zacatepec 1948 scores more
40%
level
27%
Celaya scores more
33%

Zacatepec 1948 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zacatepec 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zacatepec 1948 vs Celaya

Zacatepec 1948 beat Celaya 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz (Zacatepec).