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Zacapa Tellioz vs Mixco — Liga Nacional 2019

Zacapa Tellioz
Zacapa Tellioz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mixco
Mixco
7/30/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 1Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zacapa Tellioz50%
×Draw28%
Mixco22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacapa Tellioz
1.34
Mixco
0.79

Zacapa Tellioz creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 103 away

creates per match

Zacapa Tellioz
1.04
Mixco
0.70

allows per match

Zacapa Tellioz
0.88
Mixco
1.65

finishing

Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par
Mixco+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacapa Tellioz ↓

Mixco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zacapa Tellioz or draw
78%
Zacapa Tellioz or Mixco
72%
Draw or Mixco
50%

Winning margin

Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+
24%
Mixco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals
74%
Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals
39%
Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals
15%
Mixco 1+ goals
55%
Mixco 2+ goals
19%
Mixco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)
69%
Mixco (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacapa Tellioz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Mixco away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.65 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacapa Tellioz attack 1.04 + Mixco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mixco attack 0.70 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zacapa Tellioz scores more
50%
level
28%
Mixco scores more
22%

Zacapa Tellioz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zacapa Tellioz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zacapa Tellioz vs Mixco

Zacapa Tellioz beat Mixco 1-0 in Liga Nacional on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales in Zacapa.