Zacapa Tellioz 0–1 Malacateco: Result & Stats

Zacapa Tellioz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Malacateco

9/29/2024

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 9Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zacapa Tellioz48%

×Draw28%

Malacateco23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zacapa TelliozExpected goals in this matchMalacateco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.83

Zacapa Tellioz

1.33

Malacateco

0.83

Zacapa Tellioz creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 145 away

1.04

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Zacapa Tellioz

1.04

Malacateco

0.78

allows per match

Zacapa Tellioz

0.88

Malacateco

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par

Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacapa Tellioz ↓

Malacateco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zacapa Tellioz or draw

77%

Zacapa Tellioz or Malacateco

72%

Draw or Malacateco

52%

Winning margin

Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+

23%

Malacateco wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals

74%

Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals

38%

Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals

15%

Malacateco 1+ goals

56%

Malacateco 2+ goals

20%

Malacateco 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)

67%

Malacateco (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacapa Tellioz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacapa Tellioz attack 1.04 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zacapa Tellioz scores more

48%

level

28%

Malacateco scores more

23%

Zacapa Tellioz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zacapa Tellioz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff