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Zacapa Tellioz vs Comunicaciones — Liga Nacional 2019

Zacapa Tellioz
Zacapa Tellioz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
11/3/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 14Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zacapa Tellioz38%
×Draw30%
Comunicaciones32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacapa Tellioz
1.12
Comunicaciones
1.00

Zacapa Tellioz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 157 away

creates per match

Zacapa Tellioz
1.04
Comunicaciones
1.11

allows per match

Zacapa Tellioz
0.88
Comunicaciones
1.20

finishing

Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacapa Tellioz ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zacapa Tellioz or draw
68%
Zacapa Tellioz or Comunicaciones
70%
Draw or Comunicaciones
62%

Winning margin

Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+
16%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals
67%
Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals
31%
Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals
10%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
63%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
26%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)
54%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacapa Tellioz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacapa Tellioz attack 1.04 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zacapa Tellioz scores more
38%
level
30%
Comunicaciones scores more
32%

Zacapa Tellioz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zacapa Tellioz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Zacapa Tellioz 0–0 Comunicaciones

Zacapa Tellioz and Comunicaciones drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales in Zacapa.