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Zacapa Tellioz vs Cobán Imperial — Liga Nacional 2019

Zacapa Tellioz
Zacapa Tellioz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cobán Imperial
Cobán Imperial
11/1/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 12Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zacapa Tellioz44%
×Draw29%
Cobán Imperial27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zacapa Tellioz
1.22
Cobán Imperial
0.88

Zacapa Tellioz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 146 away

creates per match

Zacapa Tellioz
1.04
Cobán Imperial
0.88

allows per match

Zacapa Tellioz
0.88
Cobán Imperial
1.40

finishing

Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par
Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacapa Tellioz ↓

Cobán Imperial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zacapa Tellioz or draw
73%
Zacapa Tellioz or Cobán Imperial
71%
Draw or Cobán Imperial
56%

Winning margin

Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+
19%
Cobán Imperial wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals
70%
Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals
34%
Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals
12%
Cobán Imperial 1+ goals
59%
Cobán Imperial 2+ goals
22%
Cobán Imperial 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)
62%
Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacapa Tellioz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Cobán Imperial away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.40 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacapa Tellioz attack 1.04 + Cobán Imperial defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cobán Imperial attack 0.88 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zacapa Tellioz scores more
44%
level
29%
Cobán Imperial scores more
27%

Zacapa Tellioz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zacapa Tellioz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Zacapa Tellioz 3–1 Cobán Imperial

Zacapa Tellioz beat Cobán Imperial 3-1 in Liga Nacional on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales in Zacapa.