Zacapa Tellioz 0–1 Antigua GFC: Result & Stats

Zacapa Tellioz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Antigua GFC

3/3/2024

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 9Estadio David Ordóñez Bardales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zacapa Tellioz41%

×Draw29%

Antigua GFC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zacapa TelliozExpected goals in this matchAntigua GFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Zacapa Tellioz

1.20

Antigua GFC

1.00

Zacapa Tellioz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 155 away

1.04

creates per match

1.12

0.88

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Zacapa Tellioz

1.04

Antigua GFC

1.12

allows per match

Zacapa Tellioz

0.88

Antigua GFC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par

Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zacapa Tellioz ↓

Antigua GFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zacapa Tellioz or draw

69%

Zacapa Tellioz or Antigua GFC

71%

Draw or Antigua GFC

59%

Winning margin

Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+

17%

Antigua GFC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals

70%

Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals

34%

Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals

12%

Antigua GFC 1+ goals

63%

Antigua GFC 2+ goals

26%

Antigua GFC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)

57%

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zacapa Tellioz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zacapa Tellioz attack 1.04 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Antigua GFC attack 1.12 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zacapa Tellioz scores more

41%

level

29%

Antigua GFC scores more

31%

Zacapa Tellioz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zacapa Tellioz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff