Zabbar St. Patrick 1–2 Zebbug Rangers

Zabbar St. Patrick

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zebbug Rangers

1/13/2024

FA Trophy · 1st RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zabbar St. Patrick41%

×Draw22%

Zebbug Rangers37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zabbar St. PatrickExpected goals in this matchZebbug Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.72

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.82

Zebbug Rangers

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.43

1.00

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.50

Zebbug Rangers

2.43

allows per match

Zabbar St. Patrick

1.00

Zebbug Rangers

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zabbar St. Patrick+0.00on par

Zebbug Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zabbar St. Patrick ↓

Zebbug Rangers →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Zabbar St. Patrick or draw

63%

Zabbar St. Patrick or Zebbug Rangers

78%

Draw or Zebbug Rangers

59%

Winning margin

Zabbar St. Patrick wins by 2+

22%

Zebbug Rangers wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zabbar St. Patrick 1+ goals

84%

Zabbar St. Patrick 2+ goals

54%

Zabbar St. Patrick 3+ goals

27%

Zebbug Rangers 1+ goals

82%

Zebbug Rangers 2+ goals

51%

Zebbug Rangers 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Zabbar St. Patrick (draw refunded)

53%

Zebbug Rangers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zabbar St. Patrick at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Zebbug Rangers away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zabbar St. Patrick attack 1.50 + Zebbug Rangers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Zebbug Rangers attack 2.43 + Zabbar St. Patrick defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zabbar St. Patrick scores more

41%

level

22%

Zebbug Rangers scores more

37%

Zabbar St. Patrick at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zabbar St. Patrick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff