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Zabbar St. Patrick vs Xewkija Tigers — FA Trophy 2020

Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrickadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xewkija Tigers
Xewkija Tigers
1/4/2026FA TrophyFA Trophy · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zabbar St. Patrick57%
×Draw23%
Xewkija Tigers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zabbar St. Patrick
1.83
Xewkija Tigers
1.00

Zabbar St. Patrick creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zabbar St. Patrick
1.50
Xewkija Tigers
1.00

allows per match

Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Xewkija Tigers
2.17

finishing

Zabbar St. Patrick+0.00on par
Xewkija Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zabbar St. Patrick ↓

Xewkija Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zabbar St. Patrick or draw
80%
Zabbar St. Patrick or Xewkija Tigers
77%
Draw or Xewkija Tigers
43%

Winning margin

Zabbar St. Patrick wins by 2+
32%
Xewkija Tigers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zabbar St. Patrick 1+ goals
84%
Zabbar St. Patrick 2+ goals
54%
Zabbar St. Patrick 3+ goals
28%
Xewkija Tigers 1+ goals
63%
Xewkija Tigers 2+ goals
26%
Xewkija Tigers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zabbar St. Patrick (draw refunded)
74%
Xewkija Tigers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zabbar St. Patrick at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Xewkija Tigers away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zabbar St. Patrick attack 1.50 + Xewkija Tigers defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Xewkija Tigers attack 1.00 + Zabbar St. Patrick defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zabbar St. Patrick scores more
57%
level
23%
Xewkija Tigers scores more
20%

Zabbar St. Patrick at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zabbar St. Patrick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Zabbar St. Patrick 1–0 Xewkija Tigers

Zabbar St. Patrick beat Xewkija Tigers 1-0 in FA Trophy on January 4, 2026.