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Yxhult vs Angered BK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Yxhult
Yxhult
FT
2 – 2
Angered BK
Angered BK
6/27/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 11Moabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Yxhult37%
×Draw22%
Angered BK41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yxhult
1.75
Angered BK
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

creates per match

Yxhult
1.45
Angered BK
1.96

allows per match

Yxhult
1.77
Angered BK
2.04

finishing

Yxhult+0.00on par
Angered BK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yxhult ↓

Angered BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Yxhult or draw
59%
Yxhult or Angered BK
78%
Draw or Angered BK
63%

Winning margin

Yxhult wins by 2+
19%
Angered BK wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Yxhult 1+ goals
83%
Yxhult 2+ goals
52%
Yxhult 3+ goals
25%
Angered BK 1+ goals
84%
Angered BK 2+ goals
55%
Angered BK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Yxhult (draw refunded)
47%
Angered BK (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yxhult at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Angered BK away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yxhult attack 1.45 + Angered BK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Angered BK attack 1.96 + Yxhult defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yxhult scores more
37%
level
22%
Angered BK scores more
41%

Angered BK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yxhult vs Angered BK

Yxhult and Angered BK drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Moabvallen in Kumla.