Yverdon Sport 2–2 Neuchatel Xamax FC

Yverdon Sport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Neuchatel Xamax FC

P. Weber 88'

V. Kongsro 32'

S. Demhasaj 83' (pen)

K. Kone 54'

4/22/2026

League #208 · Round 31Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yverdon Sport62%

×Draw22%

Neuchatel Xamax FC16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchNeuchatel Xamax FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.82

Yverdon Sport

1.88

Neuchatel Xamax FC

0.82

Yverdon Sport creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.75

creates per match

0.90

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

1.75

Neuchatel Xamax FC

0.90

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

0.75

Neuchatel Xamax FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

84%

Yverdon Sport or Neuchatel Xamax FC

78%

Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC

38%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

37%

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

85%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

56%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

29%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals

56%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals

20%

Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

80%

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.75 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 0.90 + Yverdon Sport defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

62%

level

22%

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more

16%

Yverdon Sport at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Gnakpa

32'

V. Kongsro↳ R. Neelakandan

52'

J. Fontana

54'

K. Kone

60'

A. Marchesano← M. Kanoute

62'

E. Abedini

69'

L. Seydoux

75'

V. Tasar← R. Golliard

75'

H. Sessolo← R. Neelakandan

76'

O. Doumbia← F. Saiz

76'

I. Sidibe← D. Carraco

76'

V. Nvendo Ferrier← K. Kone

76'

J. Hautier← S. Ben Seghir

82'

L. Pos

83'

P. Weber← A. Chappuis

83'

S. DemhasajPenalty

88'

P. Weber↳ V. Tasar

90+1'

J. Krasniqi← L. Mulaj

Yverdon

Neuchatel

27

16

15

21

3

81

▼

Carraco

4

Abedini

11

▼

Seghir

99

▼

Mulaj

20

⚽

▼

Kone

9

⚽

1

32

24

25

18

⚽

Kongsro

26

▼

Golliard

12

▼

Saiz

8

▼

Chappuis

27

A

▼

Neelakand

44

Pasche

7

▼

Kanoute

Manager: Martin Andermatt

60'▲A. Marchesano←▼M. Kanoute

75'▲V. Tasar←▼R. Golliard

75'▲H. Sessolo←▼R. Neelakandan

76'▲O. Doumbia←▼F. Saiz

83'▲P. Weber←▼A. Chappuis

Yverdon Sport substitutes

22Martin10Marchesano20Tasar2Tijani50Bittarelli9Sorgic19Sessolo4Doumbia17Weber

Manager: Anthony Braizat

76'▲I. Sidibe←▼D. Carraco

76'▲V. Nvendo Ferrier←▼K. Kone

76'▲J. Hautier←▼S. Ben Seghir

90+1'▲J. Krasniqi←▼L. Mulaj

Neuchatel Xamax FC substitutes

94Hottiger7Facchinetti25Krasniqi5Hajrulahu2Sidibe90Ferrier19Hautier35Azemi34Zahaj