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Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern — Super League 2018

Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
5/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 4Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Yverdon Sport34%
×Draw25%
FC Luzern41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yverdon Sport
1.34
FC Luzern
1.51

FC Luzern creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Yverdon Sport
1.27
FC Luzern
1.84

allows per match

Yverdon Sport
1.18
FC Luzern
1.42

finishing

Yverdon Sport-0.27scores less
FC Luzern+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw
59%
Yverdon Sport or FC Luzern
75%
Draw or FC Luzern
66%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
15%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
74%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
39%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
15%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
78%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
44%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
45%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 6 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.42 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 1.27 + FC Luzern defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Luzern attack 1.84 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more
34%
level
25%
FC Luzern scores more
41%

FC Luzern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Yverdon Sport 3–1 FC Luzern

Yverdon Sport beat FC Luzern 3-1 in Super League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.