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Yverdon Sport II vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Yverdon Sport II
Yverdon Sport II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
8/12/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yverdon Sport II47%
×Draw21%
Terre Sainte31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yverdon Sport II
2.06
Terre Sainte
1.65

Yverdon Sport II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Yverdon Sport II
1.97
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Yverdon Sport II
2.07
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport II ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport II or draw
69%
Yverdon Sport II or Terre Sainte
79%
Draw or Terre Sainte
53%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+
27%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals
87%
Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals
61%
Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals
34%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
81%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
49%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)
60%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.97 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.06

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yverdon Sport II scores more
47%
level
21%
Terre Sainte scores more
31%

Yverdon Sport II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yverdon Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Yverdon Sport II 3–0 Terre Sainte

Yverdon Sport II beat Terre Sainte 3-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.