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Yverdon Sport II vs Servette II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Yverdon Sport II
Yverdon Sport II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Servette II
Servette II
10/26/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yverdon Sport II28%
×Draw20%
Servette II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yverdon Sport II
1.65
Servette II
2.30

Servette II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Yverdon Sport II
1.97
Servette II
2.53

allows per match

Yverdon Sport II
2.07
Servette II
1.33

finishing

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport II ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport II or draw
48%
Yverdon Sport II or Servette II
80%
Draw or Servette II
72%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+
13%
Servette II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals
81%
Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals
49%
Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals
23%
Servette II 1+ goals
90%
Servette II 2+ goals
67%
Servette II 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)
35%
Servette II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Servette II away — creates 2.53, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.97 + Servette II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.65

Servette II attack 2.53 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yverdon Sport II scores more
28%
level
20%
Servette II scores more
52%

Servette II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Servette II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Yverdon Sport II 1–3 Servette II

Servette II beat Yverdon Sport II 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.