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Yverdon Sport II vs Chênois — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Yverdon Sport II
Yverdon Sport II
FT
0 – 3
Chênois
Chênois
3/1/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yverdon Sport II39%
×Draw22%
Chênois39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yverdon Sport II
1.79
Chênois
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

creates per match

Yverdon Sport II
1.97
Chênois
1.55

allows per match

Yverdon Sport II
2.07
Chênois
1.60

finishing

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par
Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport II ↓

Chênois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport II or draw
61%
Yverdon Sport II or Chênois
78%
Draw or Chênois
61%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+
20%
Chênois wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals
83%
Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals
53%
Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals
26%
Chênois 1+ goals
84%
Chênois 2+ goals
54%
Chênois 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)
49%
Chênois (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.97 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chênois attack 1.55 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yverdon Sport II scores more
39%
level
22%
Chênois scores more
39%

Yverdon Sport II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yverdon Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yverdon Sport II vs Chênois

Chênois beat Yverdon Sport II 3-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.