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Yupanqui vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Yupanqui
Yupanqui
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
8/4/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 5Estadio Ciudad Evita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Yupanqui29%
×Draw29%
Ituzaingó42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yupanqui
0.94
Ituzaingó
1.21

Ituzaingó creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 95 away

creates per match

Yupanqui
0.99
Ituzaingó
0.94

allows per match

Yupanqui
1.47
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Yupanqui+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yupanqui ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Yupanqui or draw
58%
Yupanqui or Ituzaingó
71%
Draw or Ituzaingó
71%

Winning margin

Yupanqui wins by 2+
10%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yupanqui 1+ goals
61%
Yupanqui 2+ goals
24%
Yupanqui 3+ goals
7%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
70%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
34%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yupanqui (draw refunded)
40%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yupanqui at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yupanqui attack 0.99 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ituzaingó attack 0.94 + Yupanqui defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yupanqui scores more
29%
level
29%
Ituzaingó scores more
42%

Ituzaingó at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ituzaingó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yupanqui vs Ituzaingó

Ituzaingó beat Yupanqui 4-3 in Primera C on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad Evita in Ciudad Evita, Buenos Aires.