Yupanqui 0–0 General Lamadrid: Result & Stats

Yupanqui

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

General Lamadrid

3/8/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 6Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Yupanqui35%

×Draw28%

General Lamadrid38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YupanquiExpected goals in this matchGeneral Lamadrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.24

Yupanqui

1.18

General Lamadrid

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 136 away

0.99

creates per match

1.01

1.47

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Yupanqui

0.99

General Lamadrid

1.01

allows per match

Yupanqui

1.47

General Lamadrid

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yupanqui+0.00on par

General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yupanqui ↓

General Lamadrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yupanqui or draw

62%

Yupanqui or General Lamadrid

72%

Draw or General Lamadrid

65%

Winning margin

Yupanqui wins by 2+

14%

General Lamadrid wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Yupanqui 1+ goals

69%

Yupanqui 2+ goals

33%

Yupanqui 3+ goals

12%

General Lamadrid 1+ goals

71%

General Lamadrid 2+ goals

35%

General Lamadrid 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Yupanqui (draw refunded)

48%

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yupanqui at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yupanqui attack 0.99 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Yupanqui defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yupanqui scores more

35%

level

28%

General Lamadrid scores more

38%

General Lamadrid at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "General Lamadrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff