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Yupanqui vs Berazategui — Primera C 2026

Yupanqui
Yupanqui
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 0
Berazategui
Berazategui
A. Almiron 44', 6'
E. Caballero 85'
M. Flores 80', 49'
A. Sanabria 61'
S. Salomone 56'
L. Basso 48' (OG)
10/3/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 37Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Yupanqui30%
×Draw27%
Berazategui43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yupanqui
1.09
Berazategui
1.35

Berazategui creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 143 away

creates per match

Yupanqui
0.99
Berazategui
1.24

allows per match

Yupanqui
1.47
Berazategui
1.20

finishing

Yupanqui+0.00on par
Berazategui+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yupanqui ↓

Berazategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yupanqui or draw
57%
Yupanqui or Berazategui
73%
Draw or Berazategui
70%

Winning margin

Yupanqui wins by 2+
12%
Berazategui wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Yupanqui 1+ goals
66%
Yupanqui 2+ goals
30%
Yupanqui 3+ goals
10%
Berazategui 1+ goals
74%
Berazategui 2+ goals
39%
Berazategui 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yupanqui (draw refunded)
41%
Berazategui (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yupanqui at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Berazategui away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yupanqui attack 0.99 + Berazategui defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Berazategui attack 1.24 + Yupanqui defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yupanqui scores more
30%
level
27%
Berazategui scores more
43%

Berazategui at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Almiron
44'
A. Almiron
48'
L. BassoOwn goal
49'
M. Flores
56'
S. Salomone
61'
A. Sanabria
80'
M. Flores
85'
E. Caballero
90'
E. Caballero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yupanqui vs Berazategui

Berazategui beat Yupanqui 6-2 in Primera C on October 3, 2023.

Goals: A. Almiron (6', 44'), L. Basso (48' o.g.), M. Flores (49', 80'), S. Salomone (56'), A. Sanabria (61'), E. Caballero (85').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva in Merlo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.