Yunnan Yukun 0–3 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tianjin Teda

A. Quiles 81', 41'

Guilherme Schettine 52'

4/17/2026

Super League · Round 6Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Yunnan Yukun54%

×Draw23%

Tianjin Teda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.18

Yunnan Yukun

1.88

Tianjin Teda

1.18

Yunnan Yukun creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 34 away

1.74

creates per match

1.14

1.22

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.74

Tianjin Teda

1.14

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.22

Tianjin Teda

2.01

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.12scores more

Tianjin Teda+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

76%

Yunnan Yukun or Tianjin Teda

77%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

46%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

31%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

85%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

56%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

29%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

69%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

33%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

69%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.74 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tianjin Teda attack 1.14 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

54%

level

23%

Tianjin Teda scores more

24%

Yunnan Yukun at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Quiles

Tianjin Teda · F

9.3

Match Events

31'

Chenliang Zhang

33'

Fan Yang

41'

A. Quiles↳ Wang Zhenghao

45+5'

Zhenghao Wang

46'

Guilherme Schettine← Ji Shengpan

46'

Ba Dun← Wang Zhenghao

52'

Guilherme Schettine↳ A. Quiles

61'

Zichang HuangPenalty cancelled

61'

Han Zilong← Zhang Yufeng

62'

Zichang Huang

70'

Chenliang Zhang

70'

Chenliang Zhang

72'

Chenliang ZhangCard reviewed

77'

Chen Zhexuan← Wang Qiuming

81'

A. Quiles↳ Guilherme Schettine

84'

J. Liu← A. Quiles

85'

Xie Weijun

86'

Shi Ke← Xu Xin

86'

Zhao Yuhao← A. Ionita II

86'

Yang Zihao← Huang Zichang

88'

Li Yongjia← Xadas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YunnanTianjin

Overview

70%Possession30%

24Total Shots8

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.46

5Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots8

2On Target3

13Off Target5

9Blocked0

16Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

478Total Passes210

420Accurate Passes146

88%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2