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Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2026

Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
Preview
11:00
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
7/26/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium
52%
Yunnan Yukun
model favours
52%24%25%

Yunnan Yukun score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Yunnan Yukun52%
×Draw24%
Sichuan Jiuniu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yunnan Yukun
1.76
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.14

Yunnan Yukun creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun
1.63
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.03

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun
1.24
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.90

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.21scores more
Sichuan Jiuniu-0.46scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw
75%
Yunnan Yukun or Sichuan Jiuniu
76%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
48%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
28%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
83%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
52%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
26%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
68%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
32%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
68%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 19 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.63 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.03 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more
52%
level
24%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
25%

Yunnan Yukun at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sichuan Jiuniu score first in only 17% of matches
  • 82% of Yunnan Yukun’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 60% of Sichuan Jiuniu’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Yunnan Yukun have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Yunnan Yukun have scored in 7 games running
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Yunnan Yukun
Direct / counter-attacking
Sichuan Jiuniu
Direct / counter-attacking
45%Possession45%
75%Pass accuracy77%
13.5Shots11.8
1.37xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Yunnan YukunSichuan Jiuniu

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

3
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Avg goals: 6BTTS: 100%
4–33–14–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Yukun
DDLWL
Jiuniu
DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Yunnan Yukun host Sichuan Jiuniu

July 26, 2026: Yunnan Yukun take on Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Yunnan Yukun host Sichuan Jiuniu at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.