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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun — Super League 2026

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
Wesley Moraes 90' (pen)
E. Kartsev 45', 38'
O. Taty Maritu 76', 34'
Caio Vinicius 26'
Xu Xin 20'
4/12/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Baoan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu48%
×Draw23%
Yunnan Yukun29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.85
Yunnan Yukun
1.41

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.38
Yunnan Yukun
1.09

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.72
Yunnan Yukun
2.33

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.24scores more
Yunnan Yukun+0.44scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Yunnan Yukun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
71%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Yunnan Yukun
77%
Draw or Yunnan Yukun
52%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
26%
Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
84%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
55%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
28%
Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
76%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
41%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
62%
Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 26 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.33 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.38 + Yunnan Yukun defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
48%
level
23%
Yunnan Yukun scores more
29%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
E. KartsevSichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu · M
8.9

Match Events

20'
Xu Xin↳ Ye Chugui
26'
Caio Vinicius↳ A. Ionita II
27'
Caio ViníciusGoal confirmed
33'
Yiming Yang
34'
O. Taty Maritu↳ A. Ionita II
38'
E. Kartsev↳ Wesley Moraes
45+7'
Junsheng Yao
45'
E. Kartsev↳ Wesley Moraes
58'
Zhang Yufeng← Ye Chugui
63'
T. Chow← Yao Junsheng
64'
Zihao Yang
68'
Cléber
72'
Oscar Taty Maritu
73'
Ghojaehmet Shahzat← Dai Wai-Tsun
73'
Tian Yifan← Nan Song
76'
O. Taty Maritu↳ Cleber
81'
Zhang Xiaobin← E. Kartsev
81'
J. Yao← D. Owusu-Sekyere
81'
Zhang Xiangshuo← Yang Zihao
90+10'
Filip Benković
90+1'
Shi Ke← A. Ionita II
90+1'
Huang Zichang← Tang Miao
90'
Wesley MoraesPenalty

Possession

61%Sichuan

Shots

19Sichuan

Pass accuracy

52%Sichuan

Statistics

SichuanYunnan
Overview
61%Possession39%
19Total Shots14
1.90Expected Goals (xG)1.07
8Corners0
13Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots14
5On Target5
5Off Target7
9Blocked2
13Inside Box9
6Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
450Total Passes298
385Accurate Passes232
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun

Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-3 in Super League on April 12, 2026.

Goals: Xu Xin (20'), Caio Vinicius (26'), O. Taty Maritu (34', 76'), E. Kartsev (38', 45'), Wesley Moraes (90' pen).

Sichuan Jiuniu controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Baoan Stadium in Shenzhen.