Yunnan Yukun 2–1 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Yunnan Yukun

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Henan Jianye

H. Pedro 84' (pen)

He Chao 59' (OG)

F. Acheampong 29'

6/26/2025

Super League · Round 15Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Yunnan Yukun45%

×Draw24%

Henan Jianye31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yunnan YukunExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.32

Yunnan Yukun

1.64

Henan Jianye

1.32

Yunnan Yukun creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

1.42

1.22

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.74

Henan Jianye

1.42

allows per match

Yunnan Yukun

1.22

Henan Jianye

1.54

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Yunnan Yukun+0.12scores more

Henan Jianye-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yunnan Yukun ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Yunnan Yukun or draw

69%

Yunnan Yukun or Henan Jianye

76%

Draw or Henan Jianye

55%

Winning margin

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

23%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

81%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

49%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

23%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

73%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

38%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

59%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yunnan Yukun at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.74 + Henan Jianye defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Henan Jianye attack 1.42 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yunnan Yukun scores more

45%

level

24%

Henan Jianye scores more

31%

Yunnan Yukun at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Bruno Nazario

Henan Jianye · M

8.6

Match Events

17'

Zilong Han

29'

F. Acheampong↳ Wang Shangyuan

31'

Frank AcheampongGoal confirmed

46'

Ye Chugui← Han Zilong

49'

Alexandru Ioniță

57'

Zhang Yufeng

59'

He ChaoOwn goal

62'

Iago Maidana

76'

Yang Yilin← Zhong Yihao

79'

Yuhao Zhao

84'

Pedro Henrique

84'

H. PedroPenalty

88'

Liu Xinyu← Huang Ruifeng

88'

Zheng Dalun← He Chao

90+6'

Yin Congyao← H. Pedro

90'

Sun Xuelong← J. Saeter

90'

B. Li← A. Ionita II

90'

Li Xingxian← F. Acheampong

90'

Shinar Yeljan← Liu Yixin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YunnanHenan

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots20

2Corners6

13Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots20

3On Target7

3Off Target8

2Blocked5

5Inside Box14

3Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

231Total Passes435

140Accurate Passes369

61%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

5Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2