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YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh vs Kletsk — League #118 2026

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh
YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh
FT
1 – 6
Kletsk
Kletsk
9/10/2016League #118League #118 · Round 18Stadyen Haradski (Žytkavičy (Zhitkovichi‎))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh43%
×Draw19%
Kletsk38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh
2.55
Kletsk
2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh
2.50
Kletsk
3.00

allows per match

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh
1.75
Kletsk
2.60

finishing

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh+0.00on par
Kletsk+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh ↓

Kletsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh or draw
62%
YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh or Kletsk
81%
Draw or Kletsk
57%

Winning margin

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh wins by 2+
26%
Kletsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh 1+ goals
92%
YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh 2+ goals
72%
YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh 3+ goals
46%
Kletsk 1+ goals
91%
Kletsk 2+ goals
68%
Kletsk 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh (draw refunded)
53%
Kletsk (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kletsk away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh attack 2.50 + Kletsk defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.55

Kletsk attack 3.00 + YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh scores more
43%
level
19%
Kletsk scores more
38%

YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh vs Kletsk

Kletsk beat YuA-Stroy-DYuSSh 6-1 in League #118 on September 10, 2016.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski (Žytkavičy (Zhitkovichi‎)).