Ytterhogdal 3–2 Vasalund: Result & Stats

Ytterhogdal

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vasalund

8/18/2021

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSvedjevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ytterhogdal9%

×Draw11%

Vasalund80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YtterhogdalExpected goals in this matchVasalund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

4.10

Ytterhogdal

1.47

Vasalund

4.10

Vasalund creates 179% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

7.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ytterhogdal

1.33

Vasalund

1.20

allows per match

Ytterhogdal

7.00

Vasalund

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ytterhogdal+0.00on par

Vasalund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ytterhogdal ↓

Vasalund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Ytterhogdal or draw

20%

Ytterhogdal or Vasalund

89%

Draw or Vasalund

91%

Winning margin

Ytterhogdal wins by 2+

4%

Vasalund wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Ytterhogdal 1+ goals

77%

Ytterhogdal 2+ goals

43%

Ytterhogdal 3+ goals

18%

Vasalund 1+ goals

98%

Vasalund 2+ goals

90%

Vasalund 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Ytterhogdal (draw refunded)

11%

Vasalund (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ytterhogdal at home — creates 1.33, concedes 7.00 · 3 matches

Vasalund away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ytterhogdal attack 1.33 + Vasalund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Vasalund attack 1.20 + Ytterhogdal defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 4.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Ytterhogdal scores more

9%

level

11%

Vasalund scores more

80%

Vasalund at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff