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Ypiranga-RS vs São Paulo RS — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Ypiranga-RS
Ypiranga-RS
FT
6 – 1
São Paulo RS
São Paulo RS
8/22/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ypiranga-RS92%
×Draw6%
São Paulo RS2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ypiranga-RS
4.08
São Paulo RS
0.58

Ypiranga-RS creates 603% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ypiranga-RS
2.67
São Paulo RS
0.50

allows per match

Ypiranga-RS
0.67
São Paulo RS
5.50

finishing

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par
São Paulo RS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga-RS ↓

São Paulo RS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Ypiranga-RS or draw
98%
Ypiranga-RS or São Paulo RS
94%
Draw or São Paulo RS
8%

Winning margin

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+
80%
São Paulo RS wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals
98%
Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals
90%
Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals
74%
São Paulo RS 1+ goals
44%
São Paulo RS 2+ goals
12%
São Paulo RS 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)
98%
São Paulo RS (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga-RS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

São Paulo RS away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga-RS attack 2.67 + São Paulo RS defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.08

São Paulo RS attack 0.50 + Ypiranga-RS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Ypiranga-RS scores more
92%
level
6%
São Paulo RS scores more
2%

Ypiranga-RS at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Ypiranga-RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Ypiranga-RS 6–1 São Paulo RS

Ypiranga-RS beat São Paulo RS 6-1 in Copa Gaúcha on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa in Erechim, Rio Grande do Sul.