Ypiranga-RS 1–0 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Ypiranga-RS

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sampaio Correa

Jhonatan Ribeiro 80'

8/17/2024

Serie C · Round 18Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ypiranga-RS50%

×Draw28%

Sampaio Correa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ypiranga-RSExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.83

Ypiranga-RS

1.38

Sampaio Correa

0.83

Ypiranga-RS creates 66% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 21 away

1.51

creates per match

0.81

0.86

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ypiranga-RS

1.51

Sampaio Correa

0.81

allows per match

Ypiranga-RS

0.86

Sampaio Correa

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ypiranga-RS ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ypiranga-RS or draw

77%

Ypiranga-RS or Sampaio Correa

72%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

50%

Winning margin

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+

24%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals

75%

Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals

40%

Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals

16%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

56%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

20%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)

69%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ypiranga-RS at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ypiranga-RS attack 1.51 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sampaio Correa attack 0.81 + Ypiranga-RS defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ypiranga-RS scores more

50%

level

28%

Sampaio Correa scores more

23%

Ypiranga-RS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ypiranga-RS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Victor Daniel← Gazão

57'

Jhonatan Ribeiro← Caio Vitor

66'

Edson Caríus← Zé Vitor

66'

Reifit← Fabrício

68'

Fernando Fonseca

69'

Gabriel Silva← Bruno Baio

79'

Lucas Marques← Caio Mello

79'

Mateus Anderson← Mirandinha

80'

Jhonatan Ribeiro

86'

Renan Gorne← Nadson

86'

Roney← Cavi

90+2'

Fabrício← Ferreira

Ypiranga-RS4-4-2

Sampaio3-4-3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Thiago Carvalho

57'▲Jhonatan Ribeiro←▼Caio Vitor

66'▲Edson Caríus←▼Zé Vitor

66'▲Reifit←▼Fabrício

79'▲Lucas Marques←▼Caio Mello

79'▲Mateus Anderson←▼Mirandinha

Ypiranga-RS substitutes

RibeiroCaríusReifitMarquesAndersonEdsonClaytonDall'AgnolSantosMossoróYohan

Manager: Felipe Surian

46'▲Victor Daniel←▼Gazão

69'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Bruno Baio

86'▲Renan Gorne←▼Nadson

86'▲Roney←▼Cavi

90+2'▲Fabrício←▼Ferreira

Sampaio Correa substitutes

DanielSilvaGorneRoneyFabrícioAlanAdrianoDimasAguiarFranklin

Serie C: Ypiranga-RS 1–0 Sampaio Correa

Ypiranga-RS beat Sampaio Correa 1-0 in Serie C on August 17, 2024.

Goals: Jhonatan Ribeiro (80').

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa in Erechim, Rio Grande do Sul.

Ypiranga-RS vs Sampaio Correa — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Ypiranga-RS 1–0 Sampaio Correa